[中文] 在强大的刺激政策与存货调整周期的作用下，2000年中国宏观经济成功走出了自2000年三季度以来深度下滑的低谷。虽然外贸形势依然严峻，但在投资和消费扩张的引领下，实体经济出现超预期反弹，通胀预期开始抬头，资产价格快速提升，宏观经济景气快速回升，中国宏观经济整体开始进入“政策刺激性反弹阶段”向“市场需求反弹阶段”的过渡阶段， 2000年的宏观经济在超预期反弹的表现下呈现出以下8大特点。
[外文] Owing to the stimulant policies and inventory adjustment cycle, China’s macro-economy in 2000 has climbed out of the economic trough successfully which began from the third quarter of 2000. Although the situation of foreign trade remains serious, the real economy rebounds unexpectedly under the guidance of investment and consumption expansion; inflation expectation begins to resurge; asset prices increase rapidly; and macro-economy made a turnaround during a short period. Generally speaking, our macro-economy has entered a rebound stage of transition from policy incentive to market demand and with such unexpected rebound it presents 8 major characteristics as follows:
1. Indicators such as various GDPs, investment, consumption, added value of industrial output, financial revenue, business profit and overall prosperity index of macro-economy begin to pick up by a big margin, exceeding expectations of economic bodies at all levels. China succeeds in throwing off the continuous drop in macro-economy which is due to the impact of the global financial crisis and achieves an economic bounce from the bottom out of all expectations.
2. In terms of gross amount, the growth rate of GDP increases quarter by quarter compared to the same period of 2000 and its growth curve can be shown as ‘v’. However, on a monthly basis there is not a continuous growth that has lasted more than two quarters and its growth curve can be shown as ‘ ‘v’+ inverted ‘v’ ’. The fluctuation of the growth rate on a month-on-month basis, therefore, shows that under the influence of stimulant policies our macro-economy has experienced a transition from accelerated rebound to smooth increase.
3. In terms of departmental indexes, the growth rate of indexes such as added value of industrial output, business profit, power capacity, financial revenue and PMI increases by a large margin compared to the same period of 2000. However, there are certain factors such as structural variation of indexes like financial revenue, power capacity, trade surplus and PMI on the one hand; and the total amount is still at a relatively low level on the other hand. Thus the macro-economic situation reflected by the growth rate of those indexes deviates from the reality, that is, the real margin of macro-economic rebound is smaller than that evaluated by those indexes.
4. In terms of factors influencing economic growth, there are pluralistic ones which have effect on rising from the bottom and rebounding unexpectedly. They include not only domestic demand expansion or inventory adjustment but also base effect. The core impetuous of economic growth remains derived from the rebound stimulated by policies and the adjustment of inventory cycle. The spontaneous demand in the market is still depressed with the great locality and mutability, which marks that the core indicator for the all-around economic recovery—the dynamic mechanism for endogenous growth which can achieve self-cycling and self-driving of market—has far from being formed. At the transitional rebound stage from policy incentive to market demand, our macro-economy possesses features such as structural imbalance, dynamic instability, lack of interaction between growth factors and so on. The above features determine the changeability of our macro-economy and it is still possible for the deficiency of output to have a sharp fluctuation.
5. In terms of economic structure, both economic slowdown and economic incentive bring our macro-economic structure a series of great changes that indexes such as proportion of international demand, heavy chemical industry and eastern region and energy consumption per unit of GDP have declined but most of those changes are momentary and transitional. The initial rebound of China’s heavy chemical industry and the continuous recession of downstream and export industries indicate that China’s structural problems will appear distinctly further.
6. Due to the extremely easy monetary policy and the downward trend from the liquidity to the permeability of real economy, the asset prices increases rapidly. Meanwhile, the formation of positive feedback mechanism, which refers to the synchronized increase in prices of real estate and house property, will challenge the sustainable recovery of real estate.
7. Due to the extreme expansion of money, the initial rebound of our economy and the run-up of prices of world staple commodities, China’s inflation is expected to resurge. It does not only reverse the economic expectation but also gives our macro-economic recovery a great impact.
8. Due to the base effect and the recovery of global economy, the growth rate of import and export will obtain a tremendous improvement since the fourth quarter in 2000 compared to the same period of the previous year whereas the rebound speed of import growth rate will exceed that of export obviously. Therefore, the situation of China’s international demand remains grave.[/外文]